Re: Egypt's new revolution broadcast on Al Jazeera Arabic

[Chris Knipp]

I started a new blog. (http://chrisknipp.blogspot.com/) I found a topic when the Arab revolt that began in Tunisia in Dec. 2010 moved to Egypt. Now the wave is felt in Jordan, Yemen, and soon other places, possibly Saudi Arabic. Having lived and worked in Cairo for two years and spent many years studying Arabic, I am very interested and personally involved in these events and support the spirited people of Egypt.

Watch this YouTube video and you'll see that the feistiness and humor of the Egyptian people starts early:

Mubarak's gone mad. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7eNEYrl15w)

You'll see my first comments on the events in Egypt on my blog here. (http://chrisknipp.blogspot.com/2011/01/carpe-diem.html)

Noam Chomsky: “This is the Most Remarkable Regional Uprising that I Can Remember” He called the events "spectacular."

I have been watching Al Jazeera English and Arabic 24/7. It is exhausting, sometimes very troubling, but exhilarating. There has been nothing like this since the Sixties. These events across the Arab world are a game-changer. Obama is slow to catch up. He's watching to see which way the wind blows, playing both sides against the middle as is Washington's way.

Also coverage of Sharif Abdel Kouddous on Democracy Now! has been outstanding. A young US-educated Egyptian journalist on the ground in Cairo, his tweets also keep you up to the minute as do those of Nir Rosen, AJE, and many others: http://twitter.com/#!/sharifkouddous

Luckily I'm going to NYC in a few days, because there I will have many other distractions, or otherwise this revolution stuff might drive me nutty.

[cinemabon]

News out of Cairo r/t USA involvement this morning is not good. Someone is accusing the US Embassy of running through a crowd on the Jan 28th. Evidently, the video is on youtube. com. I have not seen it, but the AP reports say the vehicle involved does belong to the US Embassy. According to the state department, a number of vehicles were reported stolen two weeks ago. My question is: How did someone break into our embassy in Cairo? Why would they steal a delivery van? Simply saying the vehicle(s) were stolen is a poor denial.

Second, Jumping Joe Biden, who claims he has a long personal relationship with the current VP of Egypt, Omar Suleiman, states he is in constant contact with him and that the Egyptian VP has promised they are addressing the protestors complaints. Biden has called for calm on the part of protestors. My question to the White House would be this: Can't you keep Joe's mouth shut on sensitive issues like this? The only person who should be a spokesperson to the press is the president. I like Joe Biden. But only President Obama should give out important news relating to our interactions with Egypt. Hold more press conferences, Mr. President. No more O'Reilly interviews. That man is a jerk! Obama is his best spokesperson.

Finally, a Gallup poll this morning reveals that 50% of the American public show unfavorable views toward Egypt, especially in the over-65 crowd. However, those with a college education or more have a 63% favorable rating for Egypt, while that drops to less than 36% percent to those with a high school diploma or less. I believe this relates to how much people have follow the coverage and what channel they watch (i.e. reg news network vs Fox/ABC). Notice I put ABC in with Fox. Why? Well, when the rest of the major television news divisions went with Cairo as the lead story yesterday (CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, AP, even Bloomberg!) ABC chose to cover the president's "embarrassing" and apologetic speech at the Chamber of Commerce and spent the entire first segment with an even more damaging commentary by Jake Tapper along with Diane Sawyer's slap in the president's face. This belittling of the president, along with O'Reilly's rude interview Sunday, further chips away at Obama's stature and makes him less effective in the eyes of those "Republican" leaning viewers. Once more we see that the "right" tries to steer public opinion away from Obama, even in the middle of what could be an explosive situation in the Middle East.

[Chris Knipp]

Obviously with the contradictory statement by US envoy Wisner a couple day sago, the Administration has had trouble coordinating its chief reps for Egypt now. Washington is in a ticklish position. They didn't want to appear to betray their old ally Muybarak, but they see which way the wind blows: the people will not accept continuation of Mubarak. Their alternative is to try to keep the regime going with Omar Suleiman. But the people will not accept Suleiman: he is simply Mubarak lite, or not even lite, since he is the torture chief.

As for the stolen US Embassy cars, since the Egyptian regime withdrew all police protection during the uprising until recently bringing it back a bit, it is quite possible they could have been stolen, and with the regime looking the other way. Part of the calculated chaos. But I agree the story is very fishy, and looks bad for the US Embassy.

As for US opinion, I did not know about that poll, but do not think it is surprising. It is not surprising that many Americans don't even know where Egypt is. Didn't see the O'Reilly interview with Mubarak. If it was insulting, and O'Reilly is still not in prison, at least that shows this country isn't Egypt.

Today's lead story on Egypt in the NYTimes (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09egypt.html?ref=todayspaper) shows the resistence is still very strong, and is moving to other fronts, despite regime propaganda efforts to dismiss it as fading. See my blog entry below inspired by that story and the news about Wael Ghonim, a new hero of the revolution, who may have helped get it started. His tearful, intense testimony on a popular Egyptian private TV station convinced many Egyptians that the protests and uprising were genuine and honest and not inspired by any ideology or any outside influence but only by the youth's intense wish to be free of thirty years of oppression. Wael Ghonim help inspire a new bigger turnout of demonstrators who are ready to stay on the streets and in the square as long as it takes and to the death if they must. More and more Egyptians are convinced of the slogan in the protester's sign I cited before: FREEDOM HAS A PRICE AND WE ARE READY TO PAY IT.

Story: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09egypt.html?ref=todayspaper

[Chris Knipp]

Wednesday, February 9, 2011
The struggle continues: Wael Ghonim becomes a hero

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rZohqVSR_X8/TVL1_0P73UI/AAAAAAAAAOI/pdoDwHPR64c/s320/saidmotheregypt.jpg
Wael Ghonim at Tahrif Square the day after his release

Despite disappointingly limp or counterproductive responses from the Obama Administration and continuous propaganda efforts by the Mubarak regime to dismiss the Egyptian youth revolution of 25 January, it has only grown stronger. Sharif Abdel Kouddous reported (http://twitter.com/#!/sharifkouddous/status/34992476817199104) on Twitter that on Feb. 8 the crowd in Tahrir Square was the biggest he had seen yet.

For US readers, a[I] New Yorker magazine blog (http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/closeread/2011/02/wael-ghonim.html) links to Wael Ghonim's dramatic appearance on Egypt's most popular interview show on the private channel Dream TV, an emotional eye-opener which the NY Times' Feb. 9 lead story indicates has brought thousands of new participants into the uprising. These now, the Times story (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast/09egypt.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper)says, begin to include "brigades of university employees and telephone company employees," "a column of legal scholars in formal black robes," and more members of the Egyptian elite in Tahrir Square, including pop and sports stars and intellectuals. The Times' front page photo shows a group of obviously hip and well-off young Egyptians deeply involved in collating interviews they've done with Tahrir protesters to post in various social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter.

The Internet hasn't been crucial to the Egyptian uprising during its more than two weeks, but then again it has. Wael Ghonim, a Google marketing executive in the Gulf, was active in establishing the "We Are All Khalid Said" Facebook site. Said was a young Egyptian beaten to death by police in Alexandria on June 6, 2010, an event that was a tipping point for the Egyptian revolt as the self-immolation of unemployed university grad Mohamed Bouazizi was for the Tunisian one. Surely their organizing of "We Are All Khalid Said" and several other social networks helped get people into the Egyptian streets. Then once public protest got going, each one told one, and millions came out and are still coming out. The movement has a momentum of its own. Ghonim has become a hero of the uprising -- especially its wired, young branch -- by saying tearfully and eloquently that he is not the real hero, that he only used his "fingers on a keyboard," while protesters put their bodies on the line.

In the TV interview Ghonim tells how he came from the Gulf telling his boss he needed time off for "personal" reasons, but in fact in order to be in Cairo for the protests. When he got there, he was "kidnapped" by police and held, continually blindfolded, for twelve days -- the first, key days of the intifada. He didn't know if the uprising had really gotten off the ground. When he was released and learned that many had died, he was devastated, but he insisted it was not the fault of the organizers; it was the fault of " those who are in charge of the country and don’t want to leave their positions."

This TV moment is important because it helps counter the continuing Mubarak regime campaign to discredit the uprising, say its leaders are tools of foreign interests, or claim its demands have been met and people can go home.

The demands of the Egyptian people have not been met. They demand that Hosni Mubarak leave his whole government with it, including Omar Suleiman, that the two main bodies of the government be dissolved and there be a new constitution allowing multiparty representation. Needless to say when Suleiman met with opposition representatives on Sunday he agreed to none of that.

Washington has gotten its wires crossed, with Obama mildly shifting tack, Hilary Clinton condemning attacks on foreign press, then an "envoy," Frank Wisner, who is a longtime friend of Mubarak and insisted the dictator had to remain in office for the "smooth transition" Obama has said can be led by Suleiman. All that is notable only for its irrelevance and unhelpfulness. As commentators have been saying, America is once again "on the wrong side of history." The US backing of Omar Suleiman as a "transition" figure is utterly wrong. The terror/torture chief, the extraordinary rendition point man, Mubarak's no. 1 crony, is no transition at all but a continuation. But the uprising is undaunted and is planning to move to other fronts beyond the main visible one of Tahrir Square, now setting up a significant demonstration in front of the headquarters of the Egyptian Parliament, an action which one protester interviewed by the NY Times said needed to be united with the Tahrir demonstrations: "Then we will expand further until Mr. Mubarak gets the point." There is a new program for protesters to come out mainly on Tuesdays and Thursdays, so they can rest in between and be visibly strong when they appear. Feb. 9's favorable lead story in the NY Times suggests the regime's repression of foreign journalists inspires them to see the revolt more positively.

[IMAGE:]http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rZohqVSR_X8/TVKzyIekIZI/AAAAAAAAAOE/TvCIfjTrPDI/s1600/Wael%252BGhonim%252BGoogle%252Bgrabbed%252Bby%252B Egypt%252BPolice.png
-video shows Ghonim being seized by secret police in Cairo, to be held blindfolded for 12 days.

--From my blog. (http://chrisknipp.blogspot.com/2011/02/struggle-continues.html)

[cinemabon]

Newsflash: Mubarak is set to resign tonight, live on Egyptian television... the bad news, his VP (the butcher) is taking his place!

[Chris Knipp]

Well, those rumors were widespread, but they turned out to be wrong. When the regime finally does change, the main question is what role the military will play. But for now, since Mubarak did not step down, that is further motivation of the uprising, which will grow stronger and more widespread.

[Chris Knipp]

Egyptian revolution day 18: Mubarak resigns!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FLlu-qSres8/TVVhQjrLxkI/AAAAAAAAAOM/Xhu3rzVhxaE/s1600/elbaradei-1.jpg
[IMAGE:]ElBaradei speaks in Tahrir Square

Yesterday was the seventeenth day of the Egyptian revolution, which seems to be called in Egypt "The Youth Revolution of 25 January." (Al Jazeera Arabic's theme title is simply "A People's Revolution.") Things kept heating up further, every day becoming more exciting -- and more uncertain. The regime was deeply entrenched but the protesters were as profoundly inspired. The number of people in the streets kept growing, with more recruits turning up every day from more levels of society and more walks of life in more cities and at more locations. In Cairo the pressure points had become not only Tahrir Square, all along the grand stage of the uprising, but also the Parliament, the building that houses state TV, and a presidential palace. This is in addition to strikers at factories and workplaces throughout the country as involvement of labor grows. The courage, dedication and spirit of the Egyptian people are incredible and increasingly inspire not just the Arab world but people everywhere.

Mixed messages continued from the top of this stubborn and powerful regime, so long in control, so long heavily supported to the tune of billions annually by the United States. Early on Thursday the High Council of the Armed Forces, meeting with its commander Hosni Mubarak conspicuously absent, issued a "first communiqué," indicating that it might be threatening to take charge independently, but mentioning no practical steps. Yesterday the High Council said the demands of protesters would be met in full, without saying how or when. Today it promised the thirty-year state of emergency laws would be lifted when appropriate and asked the protesters to go home. But what would it do? So far, apparently nothing. It was sitting on the fence, but making itself more visible at the top. The Army can be decisive. It must choose which way to go, with the regime or with the people.

Late in the evening, long awaited, came a speech from Mubarak broadcast on state television. It was at once a huge disappointment and a great new motivator to the protesters in the street. Rumors had said "al-rayyis" would step down. Instead he only showed the same stubborn, clueless determination to remain in office. He repeated the regime's accusation that the protesters are inspired by foreigners. He justified himself, promising those who had killed and injured protesters (the infamous "baltagiyya") would be punished, as if he wasn't himself ultimately behind their violence. He repeatedly used the word "youth." But he addressed the "youth" primarily only to ask them to "go home." He pretended that this was not about him but about the nation. He implied that he was worthy of our pity: this mega-billionaire of a police state that routinely rounds up and tortures thousands of its citizens (and does the same job by proxy for the US), 40% of whose citizens live on $2 a day, and 30% of whom are illiterate, wants us to shed tears for him, for all he is going though. American papers call him "beleaguered."

The result was a roar of disapproval and waving of shoes -- the Arab equivalent of giving the finger -- in Tahrir Square. This was an enraging frustration but also a great rallying point for the continued public demonstrations of today, which leaders of the uprising dubbed "The Friday of Farewell." This promises to be a very long goodbye.

Finally, late on Friday, Mubarak resigned. Tahrir Square became an endless roar of celebration. At last!

Now what?

Mohamed ElBaradei lays out his version of "The Next Step for Egypt's Opposition" in an op-ed piece (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/opinion/11elbaradei.html)in today's NY Times. The Parliament must be dissolved and the Constitution abolished, and a provisional constitution set up with a three-man presidential council, including a representative from the military, and a "transitional government of national unity. Then there should be "free and fair" presidential and parliamentary elections within one year.

It is a wise and hopeful proposal. But nothing is clear yet. This simply remains a moment to savor. Tom Friedman of the NY Times writes (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/opinion/11friedman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion) of a well-dressed Egyptian, who worked in Saudi Arabia, come so the boys could "see, hear, feel and touch Tahrir Square." "I want it seared in their memory," he declared. ElBaradei began by saying how in his youth they could speak of their political views only in whispers. Now they are shouted in all the streets of Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said, Suez, Al Mansoura, day and night. It will be seared in all our memories. And for now, that is enough. This isn't a time to be afraid. It's a time to be hopeful. It's a time when the Middle East is being redefined. And so is the United States.

Steps must be taken quickly, and the time is crucial. But again, this is a time to enjoy the moment. The Egyptian people deserve about three days to celebrate. For them, this is like winning fifty World Cups.

To watch Al Jazeera online:
Al Jazeera English. (http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/)
Al Jazeera Arabic. (http://www.aljazeera.net/channel/livestreaming)

Chris Knipp blog. (http://chrisknipp.blogspot.com/)

[Johann]

Free at last...

Great blog Chris. Great commentary.

[Chris Knipp]

Free at last, inshaallah.
Thanks!

[Johann]

Something tells me there will be a movie. I just sense it.
Ha Ha

Just glad that there wasn't the bloodshed as was predicted after that Loony Toon Mabarak's speech .
That guy was a piece of work...

[Chris Knipp]

It's been an eighteen-day movie. All you have to do is edit it down to 90 minutes. Good luck with that. There will be plenty of documentaries. Since I prefer analytical ones, I'd prefer to see one about the wave of uprisings across the Arab world rather than just this one. But this will stand as the most spectacular and probably the most important one.

[Johann]

Bill O'Reilly interviewed President Obama before the Super Bowl, not Mubarak. He was indeed a rude asshole toward Barack.
How on God's green earth does O'Reilly get one-on-one interviews with the US President?
That spineless fuckin' puke (thanks to Jesse Ventura for that bang-on title) is not worthy to interview the CEO of Wal-Mart, let alone a US President. He had zero respect for Obama during that interview. He was just snarky and snippy, asking him shit like "How do you feel when so many people HATE YOU?"


But the important news is that today is a Historic day. Mubarak is gone.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead. Which old witch? The Rich Egyptian Witch!
Ding Dong Mubarak is Dead!

Let Freedom Ring.

[Chris Knipp]

Bill O'Reilly interviewed Obama on Sept. 4, 2008, so Obama knew what he would be dealing with. Despite O'Reilly's rude and peremptory manner, I think Obma was able to express his own sensible point of view, and O'Reilly did not look good. Obama is a tough debater. But if I were Obama, I would not invite O'Reilly back. And at the end of the day, this may be meant to please or reach the Fox News audience, but it looks to you and me like another example of Obama letting the Right walk all over him. And he allowed O'Reilly to become too personal toward the end of the interview. Bottom line: on Egypt, Obama gave the appropriate answers from Washington's point of view. And O'Reilly's rudeness bounced right off him. When O'Reilly asked Obama, "How do you feel when so many people HATE YOU?", he introduced that by saying he had just asked George Bush that question, Bush being a President O'Reilly liked a good deal better than Obama. So O'Reilly was not giving Obama especially harsh treatment in asking him that question too. Plus Obama showed it to be a small and simple-minded question, though he answered it with good humor.

Yes, Mubarak's resignation is the big news of today. And the Superbowl was five days ago. But Obama's statements about Egypt are still valid expressions of Washington's position, despite the feeling that a weathervane is the best symbol of that position.

[cinemabon]

I watch with jubilation the expressions of sheer joy from the Egyptian people and never thought anything to the contrary... until I watched Rachel Maddow last night. She opened my eyes on what was being expressed by the "right" in this country, who more or less, expressed, yes, trepidation about Mubarak's fall. Huh? Are these the same pro-Bush Doctrine people who advocated democracy in the Middle East when it came to Iran? I'll try to find the video and put a link here.... unbelievable!


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/#41542564

Now its up to the military. This is day one of the new Egypt. Will it be the same as the old Egypt? I know, Chris, that you and I and others will follow this one very close.

[Chris Knipp]

I am with you, of course. This has been an extraordinary series of events. We have witnessed a revolution. As I wrote, this time the revolution will be televised. It was. We could feel the spirit of the people. The people (al-sha'b) made these changes, by themselves, by their determination, courage, and sheer numbers, putting their lives on the line. What happens in the months to come we don't know, but nothing can take away the beauty of these amazing nineteen days.

But if someone thinks only of the concerns of Israel, or wants stability, a revolution in Egypt is a scary thing. And let's not forget that the right wing extremists who have talk shows see the Arabs as violent, inferior, ignorant, and dangerous. An uprising, even nonviolent? No good. Property was destroyed. Business was lost. Things won't be the same. Iraq? Oh, that was different. That was to get Osama. That was because Saddam was going to drop an atomic bomb on Washington. That was to control oil. Whatever; that was "our" game. These events in Egypt were nobody's game but the Egyptians'. These events have exposed the hypocrisy not only of the right, but of American policy in general, throughout our history: we are democratic only when it suits us to be.

[Chris Knipp]

Egypt after the fall

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ST-gpexiT-g/TVgRCmf9fLI/AAAAAAAAAOY/GFuTNmKBeLg/s1600/egypt_protest_40copy.png
25 January slogan: "The People, the Army: One Hand!"

Mubarak has stepped down and the Egyptian people have triumphed, celebrating as only they can. But have they really triumphed? Is the regime gone? Obviously there will be many remnants. What will become of Mubarak and Omar Suleiman? What will become of the police, the Mukhabarat's apparatus of detention and torture? What can save the economy of a nation that has such demographic problems? These are certainly very real worries. But foreign, particularly American, observers are partly irrelevant now, though they could be helpful. Obama, whose foreign policy team was at cross purposes and who vacillated himself, has come out with very positive statements about the revolution, its youthful spirit, its new hope -- a move, at last, that's both wise and shrewd on his part.

But this has brought the ire of such right-wing US foreign policy ideologues as John Bolton, a would-be republican presidential candidate, who has raged at Obama's naiveté. Here is one of the reasons the American right is so clear and forceful in its statements. Its spokesmen repeat the same ideas over and over without reference to changing events.

Conservatives stick by their two familiar bugaboos, the Egyptian army and the Muslim brothers, whose predicted effects are somewhat contradictory, because the army, they say, will make everything remain the same (which they may like); but the Muslim brothers, they also say, will change everything horribly for the worse. To begin with, conservatives don't like revolutions: full stop.

The armed forces are a great power in Egypt. They are in charge now. Besides, since 1952 each leader has come from their ranks. But the military has stood on the side of the uprising and this has been clear all along. It must have supported the removal of Mubarak for that to have taken place. Bolton and other conservative commentators and "experts" (whose Middle East experience Jeremy Scahill joked often seems to be "has eaten falafel") keep insisting that the Muslim brothers are a mass of jihadists. Everyone knows the Ikhwan are the "most organized" opposition group. But their threat seems exaggerated. They have become more moderate and open to secular government. They have been warmly cooperative in the intifada, never impeding its Muslim-Christian unity. They may simply not be much of a political force in Egypt now, if they ever were. As has been pointed out, they have accomplished little in the last eighty years.

The youth revolution of 25 January brings out whether one is an optimist or a pessimist. I side with the optimists. They include most Egyptians right now. They see a new, young, secular democracy, with free elections, economic development for the good of all, and representation of all elements of society. The pessimists say there will always be a "pharaoh," and the army will just bring in a new one, maybe even someone not so new. They go on to say Egypt will go the way of Iran rather than Turkey.

Optimists like me point out that the Egyptian people have an incredible new commitment to their political future, an extraordinary new sense of civic and national pride that make everyone want to get involved -- and ready to take to the streets again if their basic demands are not met. The touching voluntary cleanup of Tahrir Square is a visible metaphor for their will to cooperate at the most basic level. The spirit of Tahrir Square won't easily be abandoned.

This may be a time for Americans to acknowledge that it's not all about us or all about Israel. Even moderates have dared to speculate recently that propping up a dictator like Mubarak for thirty years may not really have done either the US or Israel any good. A lot of those billions went down the drain. They may have gone directly into the Mubarak family bank accounts. They certainly didn't go into the pockets of Egyptian working people.

The fourth communiqué of the High Council of the Armed Forces is encouraging as far as it goes, pledging a changeover to a civilian government and continuation of all existing treaties. The people and their various political organizers are agreed on the general steps that must soon take place. Both houses of parliament must be dissolved; there must be a new provisional constitution allowing for true democratic elections; a presidential council and a transitional government; a referendum on a new constitution. There may be differences on details. Some may be unhappy that the military is in charge. Everything hinges on what elements of the army dominate. For the moment there are no clear leaders. For me this is hopeful too, a clear sign that this is really as Al Jazeera Arabic has called it, ثورة شعب/[I]thawrat sha'b, "a revolution of the people." But in a situation like this, we have to be able to live with uncertainty.

This is the Feb. 13, 2011 entry of the Chris Knipp blog. (http://chrisknipp.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypt-after-fall.html)

[cinemabon]

Many people are not aware that the man in charge of the military was a strong supporter of Mubarak. My feelings at this point are cautious. Suspending the constitution and discharging their parliment leaves the people with no voice. Unless reforms are inacted at once, I fear this military regime may decided that quiet "crackdown" is the answer, as we saw today in Tehran, where police charged into protesters with brutal force. The Egyptian secret police are still in power and the domestic police forces have not shown any remorse for their actions two weeks ago.

[Johann]

I watched a panel at uOttawa discuss the situation on CPAC.

The point was made that a lot of people got rich through the Mubarak regime, and a lot of those people still have tentacles.
It's going to be tough I think. Remnants indeed.

Those remnants will be a problem. Old dogs don't learn new tricks easily.
But at least we know that the Egyptian people are ready and willing to die if the situation gets anywhere near what Mubarak was.
It's a huge mistake to fuck the people over after a revolution of this magnitude.
It's gonna be tough, but I'm very optimistic.
Just because of the CHARACTER those people displayed.
To the PLANET.

[Chris Knipp]

What about the power of the people? Remember the Sixties? This is a wave of revolutions, youth and wired-powered.

I heard em say
The revolution wont be televised
Aljazeera proved em wrong
Twitter has him paralyzed
80 million strong
And ain’t no longer gonna be terrorized
Organized – Mobilized – Vocalized
On the side of TRUTH
Um il-Dunya’s living proof
That its a matter of time
before the chicken is home to roost
Bouazizi lit the…

--0.M.A.R.O.F.F.E.N.D.E.M (http://offendum.blogspot.com/)

[Johann]

Awesome lines.

[Chris Knipp]

Thanks to my sister in Baltimore. She found them. He's a Syrian/American rapper, it seems.

[cinemabon]

It's sad to watch what is happening in the Middle East. I feel so helpless. And then turn your eyes back home and look at Wisconsin and Ohio. Have the bad guys won and this is all some terrible dream where I can't wake up?

[Chris Knipp]

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9253/68641libyanleadermuamma.jpg
Qaddafi on state TV: "Sing, dance, and get ready"

Muammar al-Qaddafi in extremis

Ten days later the world isn't focused on Cairo any more. On February 26 military police brutally attacked protesters in Tahrir Square and in front of the Parliament, a sign the old order and means of repression are not gone. Not that all hope is lost: slowly, steps are being taken to move toward a new democratic government. And as for the wave of revolutionary fervor, that continues throughout the Arab world. On Friday Iraqis staged their own "Day of Rage" and the biggest oil refinery was shut down. Additional tribal leaders joined the opposition in Yemen and it's looking more and more as if Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen will have to step down, not wait till 2013, his Mubarak-like initial offer. Revolt is strong in Bahrain too. A Shiite leader returned from exile to Manama and thousands marched to call for the PM's removal. Demonstrations were weaker in Algeria and Tunisia, but they happened.

All the attention of course is on Libya. This is the worst-case scenario for the Arab revolts. A mad dog leader (Reagan's words), isolated, eccentric, and deranged, has made the country an empty shell. The small population is scattered into disconnected tribes. Qaddafi and his No. 1 son Saif al-Islam are pledged to fight to the end. Only Libya's oil riches may protect the country from future chaos. If oil income is distributed among the population, that may foster domestic tranquility (which happens in the princedoms and makes them more secure against revolt). But Libya's revolution can't have been as planned and coordinated as those of Tunisia and Egypt. It's more a spontaneous impulse, inspired by news of the Arab world. One can only hope that the revolutionary spirit and the Arab connectedness symbolized by Al Jazeera will somehow also inspire the country to rebuild itself and avoid the truly worst-case scenario of descending into another Afghanistan.

There is no semblance of decency in Qaddafi. He ordered his own air force to strafe demonstrators. Some defected in protest and piloted their planes to Malta. The new Arabic words to learn this time (akin to بلطجية /baltagiyya for the locally hired thugs in Cairo) are مرتزقة اجانب/murtaziqa ajānib, foreign mercenaries. Here is a leader who is accusing the demonstrators of being not only foreign-inspired, but run by al-Qa'ida, while he is hiring outsiders to kill his own people, and openly threatening to attack them in their houses, burn the land, turn the country into a living hell, distribute arms to all his remaining supporters.

Citizen rebels hold Benghazi, which represents a bastion of freedom, a city-wide Tahrir Square, and other towns have followed. But Quaddafi forces still control other strongholds, including the capital, Tripoli -- which was done over in a day to present a tidy, peaceful front for foreign journalists. The dictators' favorite western media contact lady, Christiane Amanpour of ABC, got to interview Saif al-Islam. But he has already raged on state television, and this man does not wear well.

Libyans used broken TVs as barricades. Al Jazeera broadcast an extraordinary film last week. It showed the video stream of Quaddafi's khaki-swathed rant, also on TV, being projected huge on a wall and as the mad dog waved his Green Book and threatened to make his people's lives hell, protesters threw large objects at the flickering image and shouted.

The revolution in Libya has the dubious but for the revolutionaries very real advantage that the government hasn't (like Egypt's republic) a thread of legitimacy. The fabric of Egypt's regime would have shredded more completely if its cadre of ministers, military officers, and ambassadors had publicly resigned and declared their allegiance to the revolt as has happened in Libya. But while Egypt has the danger that its old regime is too solidly entrenched, Libya has the danger of having no structure to hold it together at all.

Now, Obama still presents a pale image of American "democracy," because Sarkozy and Cameron spoke up directly while he dithered again. Two good reasons this time, though: oil and Americans working in Libya. If Obama had called for Quaddafi's removal early and oil prices had gone up, as they are anyway, that would hurt Obama's reelection chances. He did not want to drive the crazy leader to take Americans hostage and bad weather was delaying their escape to Malta.

American and indeed all policy of the western powers is based on expediency rather than morality, and their official reprisals may be feeble or harmful, anything but helpful, just diplomatic gestures to make them look good later. As Ertegun of Turkey has just said, sanctions against Libya threaten to harm the people more than help their cause. The United States isn't written "US" for nothing. It's all about us, not them.

Libya, though just next door, is not providing a picture of the beautiful, mainly peaceful revolution that we witnessed in Egypt. It's an ugly process with no end in sight and not easy to watch. But it is an even stronger picture of the courage, determination, and democratic drive of the Arab people. And this too is being called by Libyans a "revolution of youth."

PHOTO CAPTIONS:
Rebels celebrate fall of Benghazi
Demonstrators with Libyan flag in Benghazi
Former soldier celebrates the revolt
Demonstrators take Pearl Roundabout, Manama, Bahrain
Demonstration against Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen

All these will be found in my blog entry. (http://chrisknipp.blogspot.com/2011/02/muammar-al-qaddafi-in-extremis.html)

[cinemabon]

The military junta currently in power has declared an end to all protests as of today (Gates is also in Cairo today). Amnesty Internation has reported that several women were recently seized at protests and checked for their virginity. Soldiers roughed up those who would not strip or protested. Women had to endure inspections from several men, although AI did not report any rapes. Also, news cameramen at the recent fire of government offices had their cameras taken and smashed to prevent publication of any pictures. Anyone caught protesting on the streets of Cairo or anyone protesting conditions in government offices can be arrested on the spot and charged with sedition.

[Chris Knipp]

Those are worrying developments, and not the only ones. I mentioned in my latest blog entry (http://chrisknipp.blogspot.com/2011/03/co-opting-arab-revolts.html) (which I neglected to post here) the torture/beating of singer-songwriter Rami Essan, who was arrested on his way through Tahrir Square to a concert. See also Jack Shenker's Guardian article (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/18/egypt-revolution-tahrir-square-resistance) of five days ago, "Egypt's freedom is far from won
The Egyptian revolution has been plastic-wrapped as victorious and peaceful – but there have been disturbing developments."
The past fortnight has seen fresh outbreaks of sectarian violence, attacks on an International Women's Day march, the reappearance of the baltagiyya (regime-backed thugs) on the streets of the capital, the forceful eviction of the remaining protesters in Tahrir and a hardened stance by the authorities towards workers striking to demand their basic economic rights.

Popular feeling among those that led the occupation of the square is that a counter-revolution is under way, a sentiment echoed by the prime minister himself. One friend emailed me despondently last week after watching bystanders laugh with soldiers and sweep dirt from the square following the vicious removal of demonstrators. "The revolution has failed," he wrote. Meanwhile, the West's focus on Libya (while ignoring that nothing is being done to protect protesters in Yemen and Baharain) takes attention away from what's happening in Egypt. There, approval of the referendum the other day may be the premature action many have warned of.

The old order is still deeply embedded and there is a struggle going in which sometimes the new order loses on the street. Many remain in prison. But in his good Guardian article, Jack Shenker says it's also much too soon to write off the Egyptian revolution. There is still a mobilized youth and a new spirit and a large population that saw change come in February and won't just lie down and let things go back the way they were.
Egypt's revolution triumphed not on 11 February, when Mubarak stood down, but on 25 January when protesters first broke through the lines of riot police attempting to seal them off from their own towns and cities and punctured that psychological barrier of fear and fatalism that had thwarted attempts at change for so long.

Decapitating the regime was merely the first step, but as long as Egyptians' fantasies for the future go beyond the narrow, claustrophobic delineations of formal politics and encompass far-reaching social and economic changes as well, then that energy and ability to mobilise will resist the permanently lapping waves of counter-revolution, however much the tide ebbs and flows.

A revolution isn't an insta-event, it's a permanent struggle to unleash the creativity of people's minds and translate that into a new reality. As the arguments over this weekend's referendum show, that struggle is alive and well in Egypt and will continue to be so – whether the world is watching or not.