77th Academy Awards predictions

[cinemabon]

An Oscar prediction – for the 2004, 77th Academy Awards

Best Picture of the Year : The big toss up – as of right now in January, the Hollywood buzz is strong for two pictures. The first is “The Aviator.” It takes place in Hollywood, and many members of the Academy actually remember Howard Hughes as well as Katie Hepburn. The second is “Sideways,” which takes place in California around many of the areas owned by the Hollywood elite. These two films are neck and neck right now. Between now and the end of February, things may change. Also "Ray" "Million Dollar Baby" "Finding Neverland" and possibly a dark horse.

Best Director: I believe Marty is a shoe-in for two reasons. One, he has a strong entry that is generally well liked this year. Two, I believe he will get the coveted Director’s Guild Award and the Golden Globe. If he does, he’ll finally take home the gold. Other strong contenders might include Clint for “MD Baby”; Marc Forster for “Finding Neverland”; Taylor Hackford for “Ray”; Alexander Payne for “Sideways”

Best Actor: There are so many choices in some great films, but the strongest contenders are Jamie Foxx for “Ray” (who may cancel himself out is he is also nominated in supporting for “Collateral”), Johnny Depp for “Finding Neverland” and Paul Giamatti for “Sideways”

Best Actress: This is the toughest choice of all. This year brought some great performances by some strong contenders. Although I know she won’t be nominated, I thought one of the strongest performances was by Catalina Sandino Moreno in “Maria Full of Grace.” The crowded field contains great performances this year by… Kate Winslet in “Finding Neverland”; Virginia Madsen in “Sideways”; Cate Blanchett in “The Aviator”; Julie Delpy in “Before Sunset”; Hilary Swank in “Million Dollar Baby”

I never try to predict Supporting catagories. They are so numerous that it’s just impossible for me.

Best Foreign Film: Two of the strongest contenders are “Strayed” (France) and “Blind Shaft” (China)

Best Documentary: Two strong contenders are “Touching the Void” and of course, “Fahrenheit 9/11” (with Moore pushing hard in Hollywood right now for a Best Pix nod, he may push himself right off the nomination list… but I doubt it. Hollywood finds it difficult to argue with talent, and Moore has it in spades)

Best Screenplay: Again, a very confusing category because I’m not certain which are adaptations of books and which are original. I know many of the movies I’ve mentioned deserve nomination in this category. I’m just too lazy to do that much research. I like “Sideways” because the script was just too damn original whether adapted or not.

Costume, Set Decoration and Set Design: This is where a film like “The Passion” could be nominated if the Academy isn’t fuming too much with Gibson. However, there will be competition from the likes of Stone’s “Alexander” and Peterson’s “Troy” because technical catagories are nominated by branches. Many members worked on the ‘epic’ films, but Gibson used mostly non-voting Italians on his, something the technical branch will remember. He could be shut out.

Sound, Visual Effects : ditto to the above category. Add “Spiderman II” to this mix. It was well liked by critics and the voting members.

Animation: There is only one film in this category that was a standout this year, “The Incredibles.” No matter how many people may have liked “Polar Express,” I believe “Incredibles” will take this category easily

Score: There were a few stand-outs here, too. James Horner for “Troy”; Jan A. P. Kaczmarek for “Finding Neverland”; Vangelis for “Alexander”; Howard Shore for “The Aviator” (although Shore has won two of the last three, it’s still a fine score); Carter Burwell for “Kinsey”; Clint Eastwood for “Million Dollar Baby” The Academy likes largest orchestras that employ many members. Look for an epic pix to take this one.

The best of luck to all the nominees. See you all Sunday, February 27th along with that wild man, Chris Rock, for what will surely be a memorable evening the first time he lets “fuck” slip past the censors.

[hengcs]

Originally posted by cinemabon
Best Picture of the Year : “The Aviator”, “Sideways”, "Ray", "Million Dollar Baby", "Finding Neverland" ...
Best Director: ...
Best Actor: ...
Best Actress: This is the toughest choice of all. ...
Best Foreign Film: Two of the strongest contenders are “Strayed” (France) and “Blind Shaft” (China) ...
Costume, Set Decoration and Set Design: “The Passion”, “Alexander”, “Troy”, ...
Animation: “The Incredibles.” ...

This is my 1 cent worth ...
;)

Best Picture
1. Million Dollar Baby -- will win
2. The Aviator -- may win
3. Finding Neverland
4. Sideways
5. Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind

There is a chance for Hotel Rwanda to be in too ...
Frankly, I hope Sideways do NOT win. I only admit that the CAST and SCRIPT are very good. But it is NOT the best film. As I have mentioned in another thread, friends from overseas will be like "huh?" "what?" "eh?!"

Best Director
1. Martin Scorsese (The Aviator) -- will win
2. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) -- may win
3. Alexander Payne (Sideways)
4. Mark Forster (Finding Neverland)
5. Michael Gondry (Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind)

There may be a slim chance for Zhang Yimou (House of Flying Daggers) or Mel Gibson (Passion of the Christ).

Best Actor
I think this category and Best Supporting Actor are the toughest this year.

1. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator) -- either him or Jamie
2. Jamie Foxx (Ray) -- either him or Leonardo
3. Paul Giamatti (Sideways) -- may win
4. Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
5. Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)

There may be a chance for Liam Neeson (Kinsey), Kevin Bacon (The Woodsman), or Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

Best Actress
I actually think that this is less tough than the Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor this year. ;) Hmmm ... how can you miss out Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)? I also think that Cate and Virginia might be in the supporting category. Anyway, my picks are:

1. Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake) -- shld win
2. Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) -- will win
3. Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
4. Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)
5. Annette Bening (Being Julia)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Clive Owen (Closer) -- shld win
2. Thomas Hayden Church (Sideways) -- will win
3. Freddie Highmore (Finding Neverland)
4. Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)
5. Alan Alda (The Aviator)

Although I prefer Alan Alda over Jamie Foxx (Collateral) or Peter Sarsgaard (Kinsey), Jamie may get nominated. I just think Jamie has TOO MUCH contorted expressions in Collateral. Likewise, Peter may get nominated instead.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Laura Linney (Kinsey) -- may win
2. Cate Blachett (The Aviator) -- either she or Virginia
3. Virginia Madsen (Sideways) -- either she or Cate
4. Jodie Foster (A Very Long Engagement)
5. Natalie Portman (Closer)

Best Foreign Film
France did not submit Strayed and I think Taiwan submitted Blind Shaft last year. The likely contenders are

1. The Sea Inside (Spain) -- either this or House
2. House of Flying Daggers (China) -- either this or Sea
3. Downfall (Germany)
4. Les Choristes (France)
5. Innocent Voices (Mexico)

There might be a chance for Turtles Can Fly (Iran) or Taegukgi (Korea)

Best Costume, Best Sets, etc
I actually think these categories are VERY competitive this year, with

1. "The Aviator"
2. "House of Flying Daggers"
3. "Phantom of the Opera"
4. "Finding Neverland"
etc.

There might be some chances for "Vanity Fair", "Being Julia", etc

Best Make Up
As above, but might include Lemony's etc.

Best Cinematography (and Best Art Direction)
This category is VERY competitive too.

1. House of Flying Daggers (Cinematography and Art Direction)
2. The Aviator (Cinematography and Art Direction)
3. A Very Long Engagement (Cinematography and Art Direction)
4. Passion of the Christ (Cinematography and Art Direction)

5. Collateral (more for Cinematography)
6. The Motorcycle Diaries (more for Cinematography)
7. Finding Neverland (more for Art Direction)

There may be a chance for Million Dollar Baby, etc.

Best Visual Effects
1. House of Flying Daggers
2. Spiderman 2
3.
I will try to recall ... etc

Best Animation
My vote goes to "The Incredibles" too.
However, I was surprised that the People's Choice was "Shrek 2".
If there are enough publicity, "Howl's Moving Castle" and "Ghost in the Shell 2" might be nominated. But winning is tougher.

[oscar jubis]

If Charlie Kaufman doesn't win Best Original Screenplay my wife will have to watch the rest of the show on her own.

[hengcs]

Originally posted by oscar jubis
If Charlie Kaufman doesn't win Best Original Screenplay my wife will have to watch the rest of the show on her own.

ha ha ha
there is a high chance it will win ... BECAUSE

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Jim Taylor (Sideways) -- will win
2. Paul Haggis (Million Dollar Baby) -- may win
3. Patrick Marber (Closer)
etc

Best Original Screenplay
1. Charlie Kaufman (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
2. Bill Condon (Kinsey)
3. Bad Education -- Since it is NOT in English, will this get overlooked?
etc

[arsaib4]

Originally posted by cinemabon
Best Foreign Film: Two of the strongest contenders are “Strayed” (France) and “Blind Shaft” (China)

Originally posted by hengcs
France did not submit Strayed and I think Taiwan submitted Blind Shaft last year. [/B]

Correct, France didn't submit Strayed but the film wasn't eligible (according to rules for 2005--The film must be first released in the country submitting the film between October 1, 2003 and September 30, 2004). Strayed was released in August '03 in France. Instead France has submitted the rather bland and "Miramaxical," Les Choristes.

China has sent in House of Flying Daggers. Blind Shaft wasn't officially shown in China due to its content and thus wasn't eligible. Taiwan sent in Goodbye Dragon Inn last year.

*I love both Strayed and Blind Shaft and I wish they were nominated instead.

[cinemabon]

Thanks, Arsaib4, for the update. I guess I'll have to adjust that catagory. I also neglected to mention DiCaprio for Actor (which he may win) and the category of Cinemaphotography (where The Aviator already has the votes).

I really hope you are right, Oscar (Jubis). Eternal Sunshine was probably one of the most original scripts to come along in a while. I do not share your enthusiasm, however, for Jim Carey or his performance. Jim's tries very hard to be a dramatic actor. So did Chaplin. However, people remember Charlie for comedy, not pathos (please don't invoke the little tramp. The little tramp was pure hilarity, with a 'touch' of pathos). The same is true for Carey. While his comedy is right on the money. His drama is forced and it shows when blown up to fifty feet of visual canvas.

[hengcs]

Writers Guild nominations ...

Best Original Screenplay
-- The Aviator
-- Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
-- Garden State
-- Hotel Rwanda
-- Kinsey

Adapted Screenplay
-- Before Sunset
-- Mean Girls
-- Million Dollar Baby
-- The Motorcycle Diaries
-- Sideways

;)

[cinemabon]

Nothing like the Golden Globes to get a feel for the community. There was a huge cheer for Eastwood when his nomination was announced, and almost nothing for Scorsese. Marty may not get the prize he covets so well for so long. That would be a shame since I feel he has delivered art more often than Eastwood has. However, many people feel this is the year for art, and Eastwood has perfected his. Clint's turn around from macho hero to artist (that's ar-teest!) is a major PR coup for the aging actor. Many feel he got passed over last year, and deserves the Oscar (again) this year. We shall see. The tension mounts. And the winner is...

[hengcs]

Originally posted by cinemabon
There was a huge cheer for Eastwood when his nomination was announced, and almost nothing for Scorsese. Marty may not get the prize he covets so well for so long. That would be a shame since I feel he has delivered art more often than Eastwood has. However, many people feel this is the year for art, and Eastwood has perfected his.

Actually the "belief/rumor" is -- people want to credit BOTH.

So,
(1) If The Aviator is Best Film, then Clint will get Best Director.
(2) If Million Dollar Baby is Best Film, then Martin will get Best Director.

But who knows ... ha ha ha

[hengcs]

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY

DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

MAKEUP
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

MUSIC (SONG)
"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

SOUND EDITING
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING
THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

[cinemabon]

Obvious shut outs:

Mel Gibson, Paul Giamatti, and Michael Moore! and Howard Shore for The Aviator

Surprises:

Clint for Best Actor? Vera Drake's Mike Leigh


Obvious Winners:

The Incredibles Animated Film

Sarcastic Winners:

Passion for Make - up? (Gibson on set: "Hey, Make up! Bring more blood!)

Many thanks to hengcs for the detailed posting. Congratulations and good luck to all the nominees. Also, the Producers Guild awarded "The Aviator" Best Picture (they're right 65% of the time) and Directors Guild prize is coming up this Saturday. They almost always pick the winner as everyone in Hollywood feels that if DGA picks the winner, then he/she deserves it.

[oscar jubis]

Ranked according to degree of rage-inducement:

1. The Corporation missing from Best Documentary category. Also, Farenheit 9/11.

2. Eternal Sunshine of the Sleepless Mind missing from Best Picture. Also, Before Sunset.

3. (tie)Kevin Bacon missing from Best Actor for The Woodsman.
Hero not nominated, especially in Cinematography category.

5. Anne Reid missing from Best Actress for The Mother.

6. I haven't seen them but I bet the following submissions are better than most foreign film nominees: Voces Inocentes (Mexico), Turtles Can Fly (Iran), Nobody Knows (Japan) and The Keys to the House (Italy).

[wpqx]

Can anyone explain why House of Flying Daggers wasn't nominated for best foreign language film, I thought it was in contention?

Eastwood is a surprise, although he was fantastic. I thought Paul Giamatti was a shoe in though, in fact I kind of thought he could win.

Why is Jamie Foxx up for best supporting actor? I'll assume you have seen Collateral, but he's the lead, the central and main character with more screen time than anyone else. In fact he's probably on screen 80-90& of the film.

Moore was slighted because he didn't submit his film for best documentary consideration. He went for a gamble to get a best picture nod, and he failed.

[arsaib4]

*I don't know where to start but obviously I have no problem with Giamatti not being there.

*It seems like the academy nominated Foxx twice just to show that they aren't racially biased, and also, this way the chances of him winning one of the awards aren't as good. Julianne Moore went through this a few years ago (no she isn't black).

*I almost threw up when I heard both The Chorus and The Sea Inside were nominated, but then, I kind of expected that to happen (sorry hengcs).

*Not a biggest fan of Yimou's two films released this year so the cinematography award for Hero was enough I guess, no need to waste another nomination anywhere else for Daggers.

*Disappointed that both Ray and Finding Neverland are there. Eternal Sunshine should've been there instead.

*I'm glad that The Passion of the Christ got some technical nods, especially for cinematography which was absolutely brilliant.

I'm sure I'll think of more later on.

[oscar jubis]

Winslet was nominated. Chances of winning: about 1 in a 1000. Giamatti's over-acting/histrionics is a major problem with his film.