2012 Oscar Presictions

[Chris Knipp]

Nov. 27, 2011. Indiewire has a piece giving current Oscar predictions (Nov. 21, Peter Kniegt), and gives seven Best Picture noms (in bold below). Go to the site for Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Supporting. Those who Hollywood insiders or went to Toronto may have seen all these; I haven't. We have yet to get a look at War Horse, Extremely Lous and Incredibly Close, Tinker Taylor, We Bought a Zoo, or Land of Milk and Honey. Or Dragon Tattoo. Though that's "only" a remake, it does look really great in the trailer.

Best Picture*
Locks:
1. War Horse
2. The Descendants
3. The Artist

Reasonable Possibilities:
4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5. The Help
6. Hugo
7. Midnight in Paris
8. Moneyball
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
10.The Tree of Life

Darker Horses:
11. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
12. Young Adult
13. The Ides of March
14. We Bought a Zoo
15. In The Land of Blood and Honey

*-Note that anywhere from 5-10 films can now be nominated in this category. indieWIRE is currently predicting 7.

[Chris Knipp]

Indiewire has an update. They seem to have reniged on War Horse somewhat. So they now provide the revised list below.
I have not seen the film or theatrical War Horse, but from what I've heard about it, it sounds like it's a theatrical thing, and all the wonderment of the stage production would be lost with real horses and a film. The trailers of Extremely Loud, Tinker Tailor, and Dragon Tattoo all look impressive. We Bought a Zoo might be a return to old-fashioned corn. Not my kind of movie. Nor really for all their virtues is The Help or Hugo. But that has nothing to do with what will or won't win an Oscar.

I think The Ides of March is good, but not good enough for an Oscar. I think giving a Best Picture nom to the clunky J. Edgar would be ridicuulous but if makeup is king, somebody's going to be nominated for being able to talk with pancake wrinkles two inches thick on his face. "Remarkably unwarranted prediction" is Indiewire talking, not me. Their opening point is that this isn't a lock like last year and it's all still pretty much up in the air.

"The Predicted 8:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse

Potential Spoilers:
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
The Ides of March
We Bought a Zoo
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Remarkably Unwarranted Winner Prediction:
War Horse"

--Indiewire.

[Chris Knipp]

The New York Film Critics Circle Awards:

Best Film: The Artist.
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist.
Best Screenplay: Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin for Moneyball.
Best Actress: Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady.
Best Actor: Brad Pitt for Moneyball and The Tree of Life
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain for The Tree of Life, The Help and Take Shelter.
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks for Drive. @AlbertBrooks: "Was just told about N.Y.F.C.C. and Spirit Awards! THANK YOU. I feel like Herman Cain at a Dallas Cheerleader convention."
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree of Life.
Best Nonfiction Film: Werner Herzog's Cave of Forgotten Dreams.
Best Foreign Language Film: Asghar Fahadi's A Separation.
Best First Feature: JC Chandor's Margin Call.
And a 2011 Special Award will be dedicated posthumously to Raúl Ruiz.

Natinal Board of Review:

The full list of the National Board of Review's picks for the best of 2011:

Best Film: Hugo.
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo.
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants.
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners.
Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants.
Best Original Screenplay: Will Reiser, 50/50.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants.
Best Animated Feature: Rango.
Breakthrough Performance: Felicity Jones, Like Crazy.
Breakthrough Performance: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
Debut Director: JC Chandor, Margin Call.
Best Ensemble: The Help.
Spotlight Award: Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, Shame, X-Men: First Class).
NBR Freedom of Expression: Crime After Crime.
NBR Freedom of Expression: Pariah.
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation.
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory.
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: The Harry Potter Franchise – A Distinguished Translation from Book to Film.

Top Films 
(in alphabetical order):
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order):
13 Assassins
Elite Squad: The Enemy Within
Footnote
Le Havre
Point Blank

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order):
Born to be Wild
Buck
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order):
50/50
Another Earth
Beginners
A Better Life
Cedar Rapids
Margin Call
Shame
Take Shelter
We Need To Talk About Kevin
Win Wi
Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards (WAFCA):

THE 2011 WAFCA AWARD WINNERS:
Best Film:
The Artist
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Best Actor:
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Best Actress:
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Best Supporting Actor:
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Best Acting Ensemble:
Bridesmaids
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Reiser (50/50)
Best Animated Feature:
Rango
Best Documentary:
Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Skin I Live In
Best Art Direction:
Dante Ferretti, Production Designer, and Francesca Lo Schiavo, Set Decorator (Hugo)
Best Cinematography:
Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life)
Best Score:
Ludovic Bource (The Artist)


[Chris Knipp]

OTHER AWARDS:

Gotham Awards [partial list]:

Best Film: tie between Mills' Beginners and Malick's Tree of Life
Also nominated: Take Shelter, The Descendants, Meek's Cutoff
Besst Documentary: Better This World
Breakthrough Director: Dee Rees for Pariah
Breakthrough Actor: Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
Nominated: Mike Cahill for Another Earth,
Sean Durkin for Martha Marcy May Marlene,
Vera Farmiga for Higher Ground,
Evan Glodell for Bellflower

British Independent Awards:

Best British Independent Film: Tyrannosaur.
Also nominated: Senna, Shame, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Best Director: Lynne Ramsay for We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Also nominated: Ben Wheatley for Kill List, Steve McQueen for Shame, Tomas Alfredson for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Paddy Considine for Tyrannosaur.
The Douglas Hickox Award for Best Debut Director: Paddy Considine for Tyrannosaur.
Also nominated: Joe Cornish for Attack the Block, Ralph Fiennes for Coriolanus, John Michael McDonagh for The Guard and Richard Ayoade for Submarine.
Best Screenplay: Richard Ayoade for Submarine.
Also nominated: John Michael McDonagh for The Guard, Ben Wheatley and Amy Jump for Kill List, Abi Morgan and Steve McQueen for Shame and Lynne Ramsay and Rory Kinnear for We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Best Actress: Olivia Colman for Tyrannosaur.
Also nominated: Rebecca Hall for The Awakening, Mia Wasikowska for Jane Eyre, MyAnna Buring for Kill List and Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Best Actor: Michael Fassbender for Shame.
Also nominated: Brendan Gleeson for The Guard, Neil Maskell for Kill List, Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Peter Mullan for Tyrannosaur.
Best Supporting Actress: Vanessa Redgrave for Coriolanus.
Also nominated: Felicity Jones for Albatross, Carey Mulligan for Shame, Sally Hawkins for Submarine and Kathy Burke for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Smiley for Kill List.
Also nominated: Tom Hardy for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Benedict Cumberbatch for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Eddie Marsan for Tyrannosaur and Ezra Miller for We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Most Promising Newcomer: Tom Cullen for Weekend.
Also nominated: Jessica Brown Findlay for Albatross, John Boyega for Attack the Block, Craig Roberts for Submarine and Yasmin Paige for Submarine.
Best Achievement in Production: Weekend.
Also nominated: Kill List, Tyrannosaur, Wild Bill and You Instead.
Best Technical Achievement: Maria Djurkovic, Production Design, for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
Also nominated: Chris King and Gregers Sall, Editing, for Senna; Sean Bobbitt, Cinematography, for Shame; Joe Walker, Editing, for Shame; and Seamus McGarvey, Cinematography, for We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Best Documentary: Senna.
Also nominated: Hell and Back Again, Life in a Day, Project Nim and TT3D: Closer to the Edge.
Best British Short: Chalk.
Also nominated: 0507, Love at First Sight, Rite and Rough Skin.
Best Foreign Independent Film: A Separation.
Also nominated: Animal Kingdom, Drive, Pina and The Skin I Live In.

European Film Awards:

European Film 2011: Melancholia
Also nominated: The Artist, Le Gamin au Velo (The Kid with a Bike), Haeven (In a Better World), The King's Speech, Le Havre,
European Director 2011: Susanne Bier for Haeven (In a Better World).
Also nominated: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for Le Gamin au Velo (The Kid with a Bike), Aki Kaurismäki for Le Havre, Béla Tarr for A Torinoi Lo (The Turin Horse) and Lars von Trier for Melancholia.
European Actress 2011: Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk about Kevin.
Also nominated: Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia, Cécile de France in Le Gamin au Velo (The Kid with a Bike), Charlotte Gainsbourg in Melancholia and Nadezhda Markina in Elena.
European Actor 2011: Colin Firth in The King's Speech.
Also nominated: Jean Dujardin in The Artist, Mikael Persbrandt in Haeven (In a Better World), Michel Piccoli in Habemus Papam and André Wilms in Le Havre.
European Screenwriter 2011: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for Le Gamin au Velo (The Kid with a Bike).
Also nominated: Anders Thomas Jensen for Haeven (In a Better World), Aki Kaurismäki for Le Havre and Lars von Trier for Melancholia.
Carlo Di Palma European Cinematographer Award 2011: Manuel Alberto Claro for Melancholia.
Also nominated: Fred Kelemen for A Torinoi Lo (The Turin Horse), Guillaume Schiffman for The Artist and Adam Sikora for Essential Killing.
European Editor 2011: Tariq Anwar for The King's Speech.
Also nominated: Mathilde Bonnefoy for Drei (Three) and Molly Malene Stensgaard for Melancholia.
European Production Designer 2011: Jette Lehmann for Melancholia.
Also nominated: Paola Bizzarri for Habemus Papam and Antxón Gómez for La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In).
European Composer 2011: Ludovic Bource for The Artist.
Also nominated: Alexandre Desplat for The King's Speech, Alberto Iglesias for La Piel Que Habito (The Skin I Live In) and Mihály Vig for A Torinoi Lo (The Turin Horse).
European Discovery 2011 - Prix FIPRESCI: Adem (Oxygen)
Also nominated: Atmen (Breathing), , Smukke Mennesker (Nothing’s All Bad),
European Film Academy Documentary 2011 - Prix ARTE: Pina
Also nominated: Stand van de Sterren (Position Among the Stars), ¡Vivan las Antipodas! by Heino Deckert.
European Film Academy Animated Feature Film 2011: Chico & Rita,
Also nominated: Le Chat du Rabbin (The Rabbi’s Cat)

[Chris Knipp]

SOME MAGAZINE LISTS:

Artforum. (John Waters)
Cahiers du Cinéma.
A Burning Hot Summer (Philippe Garrel)
Essential Killing (Jerzy Skolimowski)
House of Tolerance (Bertrand Bonello)
Meek's Cutoff (Kelly Reichardt)
Melancholia (Lars von Trier)
Outside Satan (Bruno Dumont)
The Strange Case of Angelica (Manoel de Oliveira)
Super 8 (JJ Abrams)
The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick)
We Have a Pope (Nanni Moretti)

Filmmaker (Scott Macauley)

Guardian (Peter Bradshaw)
New York (Edelstein)
New Yorker. (David Denby)
Sight & Sound.
Time: Best and Worst; Performances.

[Johann]

What are your predictions Chris?
Do you predict the Oscars at all?
If you had a ballot in front of you, who would you check off as the Best of the Year?

I think the problem with AMPAS is that they are voting FROM INSIDE THE INDUSTRY.
They can't step back very well.
They can't be 100% objective, for fear of offending colleagues and co-workers and fellow members.
That's why we have those Mea Culpa awards: you know, AL Pacino for Scent of a Woman, which is a fine movie but Al deserved a Best Actor Oscar long before 1993.

I think Tree of Life may suffer an unjust fate at this years' Oscars. The feeling I'm getting is that people are not intelligent enough to understand how Epic and Grand that film is. I think they cannot relate to it, simply because they themselves could never make a film of such a calibre, let alone appreciate one.
It's just as well- 30 years from now Malick will be hailed as a Genius by the same ones who shun him...

[Chris Knipp]

The one that blew my mind is Tree of Life. I like The Descendants, but not as much, and Moneyball, but not as much as Descendants. I was not really moved or thrilled by The Artist but it is looking very classy in this competition and I like Dujardin and Hazavincius.

I have not seen a bunch on the Indiewire Oscars prediction list, starting with War Horse, Extremely Loud, and Tinker, Tailor. I'm looking forward to those and the others coming that are on that list, Dragon Tattoo, Young Adult, Bought a Zoo, Land of Blood and Honey. Don't I kind of need to know what the Oscar nominations are and see those before I make further predictions? But of the ones I've seen that are on the list, those four are my favorites. Which is just to say that Hugo, The Help, and Midnight in Paris, excellent though they are, aren't my kind of movies. I would defend Midnight in Paris against those who denounce it. It's Woody Allen's film he likes best of those he's made in many years, along with Match Point, and he has good reasons.

By the same token the Academy might like Hugo, The Help, and Midnight in Paris better than my favorites, and as you say, Johan, Tree of Life may get screwed out of the major awards it deserves at the Oscars. But it's too early to predict final outcomes.

I take the British lists very seriously. Their release dates are different from ours by a year in some cases but I like what they picked. Tyrannasaur is a very powerful, bold film. I loved Attack the Block. Submarine's screenplay is indeed brilliant and witty. Gleeson in The Guard deserves to be remembered. Weekend is amazing and Tom Cullen deserves mention. A Separation I don't personally like but it has aroused tremendous admiration judging by the 2011 NYFF. We could see these, most of them, or people in NYC could or who went to festivals, yet they seem to be forgotten by American list-makers.

I noticed what I didn't know before: the Swedish director of the terrific kid vampire film Let the Right One In (which got a US remake) is the dirctor of the new Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Expect good work there.

Notice in the European awards the listing of Melancholia in first place and the various mentions of Ezra Miller and Tilda Swinton and We Need to Talk About Kevin, not a pleasant film but one of the memorable ones of this year (or next, depending on release and country; I got to see it in Paris two months ago).
I am also interested in what Cahiers du Cinéma lists, because I was in Paris twice and I follow what they're watching in France. I saw Essential Killing there, and A Burning Hot Summer (which my friend and I thought was kind of lousy), House of Tolerance (memorable and beautiful), Outside Satan (impressed me), The Tree of Life (you know--and I saw it twice there) and We Have a Pope (a nice little film--not sure I'd put it in the top ten). Funny that I saw over half of their choices, there.

[Johann]

Great!

Jealous you got to see all those flicks in Paris. That's Living!
It may be too early to predict any winners. Still a slate of movies to arrive.
I'm glad Melancholia is respected in some quarters. It's damn obvious to me that it is a Masterpiece.
I've never seen the obliteration of the human race done so well on screen, with the director making scathing statements about it.
God Bless Lars von Trier!
He gets it on and bangs the gong with every single film.
Stay depressed Lars, please.
We all benefit from it
:)

[Johann]

I feel honoring Oprah Winfrey at an Oscar ceremony is stupid.
Giving her an Oscar for her charity work?
What does that have to do with motion pictures?

Give her an Oscar just to go away.
Stop "retiring" only to start another show that was EXACTLY like your last one.
RETIRE and live like the Queen you seem to think you are.
Yeah, you've done a lot of good charity work. Bravo. Kudos. All the best to you for such goodwill toward your fellow man.
Just go away and be content you "changed the world" by giving away cars and interviewing the cast of Jersey Shore when Snooki got punched out.
Thanks for that.
You saved the Earth.
But Oscars are for people with talent in the FILM BUSINESS.
I know you've got your toe stuck in it and you have lots of buddies (like that guy who will be remembered as a couch-jumper instead of the star of a Stanley Kubrick masterpiece).

Sorry to vent about this, but it needs to be said.
Oprah is embarrassing to me.
She's got three houses filled with awards. Everybody knows who she is.
Why do we need to see her get another award when she doesn't make Masterpieces or dazzle us with her thespian skills?
She's a TELEVISION icon.
Her film work is extremely limited.

Where was her charity when Hurricane Katrina hit?
I seem to recall her arriving in New Orleans long after the disaster had struck, and she didn't arrive with food and water and blankets, did she?
No, she was looking for the "scoop", a "story" about her black bretheren and how they suffered so much.

Oprah can RETIRE. The sooner the better. But she loves awards and attention and having others tell her she's somebody who does something.
It has no relation to the Academy Awards whatsoever.
But Oprah is big money, and you don't diss big money. EVER.

[Chris Knipp]

I am glad youy share my enthusiasm for melancholia. I like to look at this wide variety of annual lists, especially the British and European ones, to find another viewpoint and be reminded of movies I might have forgotten or still need to see.

Opra Winfrey was in The Color Purple. She is powerful. And needs stroking now she's not got her big show. I see your point, but she isn't the other TV bigwig celebrated at the Oscars. What about some of the Oscars hosts? Did you know Johnny Carson hosted them four years in a row, and then came back for another time. And what about Whoopi Goldberg? Billy Crystal keeps coming back. Is he an important movie person? I'd like to see more of Steve Martin. His taste and wit appeal to me. I just read his novel, Shopgirl. It is an elegant and perceptive piece of work. Like Woody Allen, he has real literary talent as well as wit.

It's show biz. It all blends together. And now more than ever TV and movie stars like to star on stage, and more power to them.

[Chris Knipp]

Stay depressed Lars, please.
We all benefit from it
:)

That is most amusing and perhaps true. It is rather mind-boggling that depression led to something as grand and ambitious as Melancholia.

[Johann]

I have no problem with Winfrey HOSTING the Oscars- Oprah is a Hostess par Excellence.
But giving her an Academy Award for not acting or even being IN a movie?
Fuck that noise.

She can host every single year as far as I'm concerned. Host away, Oprah!
She would do it with enthusiasm. Maybe not much humour, tho.
I don't consider Oprah very funny or comedic.
Just her hairstyles over the years make me howl.

[Chris Knipp]

I guess you're right.

Today in NYC among many others (as usual!) two well hyped new movies: Tinker, Tailor; and Young Adult (Reitman, with Theron, and the "Juno team"). We got Young Adult in San Francisco (but that's a bridge crossing for me now), not Tinker, Tailor. We've all got: The Sitter, in which Jonah Hill undermines the seriousness cred he built in Moneyball. But actually, Hill is on a roll.

Let's wait and see what they claim for Oprah when they award her at the Oscars. She is one of the most remarkable success stories in America's panoply of rags-to-riches accomplishment. An incredible woman. This just may be a good place to acknowledge her importance to Americans and to black people everywhere.

Review her story, as told on Wikipedia.

She has been ranked the richest African American of the 20th century, the greatest black philanthropist in American history, and was for a time the world's only black billionaire.She is also, according to some assessments, the most influential woman in the world.

Winfrey was born into poverty in rural Mississippi to a teenage single mother and later raised in an inner-city Milwaukee neighborhood.

I would not knock that. I would celebrate it. And that's what the Academy is going to do.

I would not knock that.

[Johann]

She is proof that anyone can make it big.
ANYONE.
Just present something to the masses that they can lap up.
She just did the same thing as Donahue, and where's his Oscar?
Just because he didn't have a book club and sell a zillion books?
Just because he didn't have every woman in America lapping up his every word?
Just because he didn't give away cars to his audience?

Rags to riches isn't something to be particularly applauded.
How about working to eliminate the rags in the first place?
How about spreading the word about EQUALITY, as she's in a position to do with a vengeance.

With the wealth and power she has, she could REALLY change the world.
She just cherry picks her causes and expects to be stroked for it.
I knock that.
Oprah isn't chock full of humility.
When she built her schools in Africa EVERY PERSON on the planet had to know about it.
She broadcasted HUGE on those good deeds.
She's a do-gooder who wants to be ACKNOWLEDGED for her good deeds.
That's bad karma.
Don't seek out publicity like that.
It turns people right off.

[Johann]

This ain't a rant Chris.
I mean it.
I'm tired of people blowing sunshine up Oprah Winfrey's ass.
If she cured cancer I'd shut my mouth.
She's a talk show host who's a billion dollar INDUSTRY. Period. Full stop.
She's not a bad person- she does a lot of good things for a lot of people.
But let's get real here.
Let's not forget that she breathes oxygen like the rest of us...