"Chicago" has the edge right out of the nomination shoot because of its bright, jazzy, unlifting beat and it's time for a musical to receive the best picture award after Moulin Rouge's nomination last year.

Michael Caine in "The Quiet American" is the dark horse sleeper for best actor, but politically the movie is ripe for recognition as war is around the corner and Caine has been around a while, close but never quite there. Known as an actor's actor he is well respected. He could slip through in an upset.

If "Chicago" gets the best picture nod, Nicole Kidman might benefit for being passed over last year for "Moulin Rouge." She still has the sympathy vote and her role distinquishes her from her past characters - like she had to really act in this one. She upsets Renée Zellweger for best actress.

Ed Harris for best supporting actor, though all the nominees deserved the award. Again Harris was passed up in "Pollock." Chris Cooper loses out in a close vote.

Meryl Streep for bes supporting actress as a tribute to both her many nominations, her acting, and the movie "Adaptation" which gets passed over.

Martin Scorsese for best director because he wants it so much and worked for so long for it. A balanced distribution of awards this. The politically nice thing to do this year.

Of course, Adaptation gets the best adapted screenplay award.

The rest, take your pick.