2019 ANNUAL MOVIE AWARDS, Golden Globes to Oscars

[Chris Knipp]

I have other Best Foreign list faves, Lee Chang-dong's BURNING (shortlisted but eliminated) and Zia Zhang-ke's ASH IS PSUREST WHITE (ditto, I believe). ROMA is an impressive film; it just didn't move or grab me that much. I can see it getting Best Foreign, but Best Picture? That's weird, isn't it? And then what gets Best Foreign? ROMA for that too? That makes it look like a foreign invasion. Russian manipulation? Trump undermining those Jewish commie Hollywood people? But yeah, of the present list I do personally prefer COLD WAR. It might win Best Cinematography? If he wins five Oscars, Cuaron will be the Mark Spitz or, to be more up to date, the Michael Phelps of movies. I am really in favor of spreading around the gold.

[Chris Knipp]

The New York Times Oscar predictions.

The New York Times has predictions today. And they have comments about what it might mean if one of the others actually won. I have some comments in the next entry on the nominations and the Times predictions. I'm not listing all the "Carpetbagger's
selections and lists. You can find the rest on the Times HERE. By the way: I hope is predictions for the three Best Short Oscar categories are wrong, and his earlier suggestion that this category "could and should be cut" from the ceremony is annoying.


BEST PICTURE
✓ Roma
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

BEST ACTRESS
✓ Glenn Close - The Wife
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me

BEST ACTOR
✓ Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe At Eternity’s Gate
Viggo Mortensen Green Book

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
✓ Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams Vice
Emma Stone The Favourite
Marina de Tavira Roma
Rachel Weisz The Favourite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
✓Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell - Vice

BEST DIRECTOR
✓ Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay - Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War

BEST DOCUMENTARY
✓ RBG
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons

BEST SCREENPLAY
✓ The Favourite
First Reformed
Green BooK
Roma
Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
✓ BlacKkKlansman
A Star Is Born
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk

ANIMATED FEATURE
✓ Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the internet

BEST FOREIGN PICTURE
✓ Roma Mexico
Capernaum Lebanon
Cold War Poland
Never Look Away Germany
Shoplifters Japan

BEST FILM EDITING
✓ Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

CINEMATOGRAPHY
✓ Roma
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
A Star Is Born

[Chris Knipp]

My new comments on the Times predictions, and the nominations.

ROMA is crazy, because isn't it in the Best Foreign list? So I'd give it to BLACKKKLANSMAN.

Glenn Close would be nice to win, after seven nominations and no wins.

Rami Malek would be touching too, a first generation son of immigrants. I heard a revealing interview with Terry Gross on NYP that showed how humble his origins were as an actor, and how little he even expected to get jobs at first. To get the Best Actor Oscar after only one other good role, and on a TV series, would be a bit much. But there is something riveting about him. And like a good first generation kid, he works really, really hard, and it pays off. His physical performance in the last scene of BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY is amazing. He is better than Freddie Mercury at Mercury's own moves!

VICE is a leaden, boring movie and for it to win for anything would be depressing.

A STAR IS BORN is overrated. It has magic in the early scenes, and Lady Gaga has great presence, Bradley Cooper charisma, but that doesn't make it a great or even good movie.

THE FAVOURITE is another un-fave of mine: it is a tasteless, crude effort at historical parody without historical sense. It was good looking, just bad when it opened its mouth. Not as bad as VICE though but not deserving of all those nominations. In this respect ROMA stands out in a good way: it is at least a classy picture - though I personally prefer, in the foreign list, COLD WAR and BURNING.

MAHERSHALA ALI - It's funny: GREEN BOOK is a very, very unsubtle movie, but he delivers a subtle performance. It seems more subtle because Viggo Mortensen's is so broad. The Academy tricked themselves there. Give it to somebody else, though, how about, since he just got one last year? I'd pick Richard E. Grant, a great character actor, but he's so damn happy just being nominated, he doesn't need to win. Sam Elliott does, and he's 74 - but does anybody really remember him in this movie? Remember my rule: don't give a prize to anything to do with VICE, please!

BEST DIRECTOR - Anyone on this list would be an excellent choice, except Lanthimos or McKay. Hint: the homeboy is Spike, though.

DOCUMENTARY - No, RBG is just a feel-good choice, I know she is a wonderful lady, but this is not a great documentary. FREE SOLO is an awesome documentary. HALE COUNTY and MIND THE GAP are just lucky to have been nominated. I missed the one about "radical Islamists" so can't comment on its worthiness, but it sounds a tad too depressing for the Oscar. I was impressed they gave it to CITIZEN FOUR in that year, though. That gave the Academy radical political cred for years.

BEST SCREENPLAY - This is where the Academy starts really showing how tired they are. Isn't it funny how they keep coming up with the same titles over and over? You can see why of this list, they'd think THE FAVOURITE was the brilliantly written one. I'd give it to FIRST REFORMED, because however derivative here, at least Paul Schrader is a writer and a thinker who writes actual screenplays.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ANIMATED FEATURE I'm happy with, except my heart is with ISLE OF DOGS, but INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE is a really sweet movie.

BEST FOREIGN: Look, voters who clicked for ROMA for both this and BEST PICTURE should have gotten an error message. Anyway, I am so happy NEVER LOOK AWAY made this list, which I had not expected. This is a good list, quality all the way. Even CAPERNAUM though corny is Labaki's best work yet, deeply relevant, and amazing in many ways. COLD WAR is superb. SHOPLIFTERS won at Cannes. But please, ROMA one best only. Or neither: Cuarón is already much celebrated.

BEST FILM EDITING - Here it is again, the same titles, over and over.

I don't have comments on all the categories.

SHORTS. As I said above, I disagree with the Times's "expert's" Oscar Shorts predictions of "Skin" for the Live Action category and "Period. End of Sentence" for the Doc one instead of "Fauve" or "Marguerite" for Live Action and "A Night at the Garden" or "Black Sheep" for Doc and hope they are wrong. "Bao" apparently is the favorite for Animated Short; none of the nominations in Animated Short grabbed me this year so I hardly care. (But I still do care, and I'd like it to go to a NON-PIxar film.) I like the Shorts category because there's not a lot of ballyhoo about them (except when there is - "Night at the Garden" has gotten publicity. Deserved, I would say.

[cinemabon]

I would love the Academy voters to break with the DGA and give it to Spike. The man's worked so hard and NEVER been nominated, not once. Cuaron has the potential tonight to make history with his name in so many categories. Just that alone makes it interesting... camera, story, directing, producing, foreign language... head spin. He's been very busy. We shall see. Will Sam Elliot be a sympathy vote? Many like him. It's the very first award. Bet those guys get bored waiting for the whole thing to end when your award is first. Will there be a trend? If Apraricio wins for Best Actress, the rest will fall like dominoes at the end.

[Chris Knipp]

Glad you agree in liking Spike Lee right now and BLACKKKLANSMAN.

I'm only not as heavily pushing for Spike because he already got a very big push by winning the Grand Prix at Cannes last year, which you could feel gave his career a new shot of energy, in itself, evident in the official Cannes press conference then.

The Academy isn't really "following" the DGA of course but reflecting the same trend. However the "trend" seems like it's often lately largely promotion. That is, it's the result of paid advertising. If you opened another Best Foreign nominee on IMDb lately, you might get an ad for ROMA plastered at the top of it. ROMA will win because it's the most heavily advertised, and also because Spanish is an easier foreign language for Americans to deal with than Polish, Korean, or Japanese.

[Chris Knipp]

It's time for the days of an Oscars "sweep" to end, because it's monopolistic, because it takes away chances from other deserving people and films. Since they started having more Best Picture nominees, they accordingly need more different movies to win awards. That's why I am fed up with the same little list getting repeated for each category. A different prize outside the Best Picture list ought to get a prize for Best Editing or Best Cinematography. A Best Picture isn't Best in everything. It's simply a wonderful movie that excels in many areas and they all fit together nicely.

These "technical" "Bests" should be opportunities to recognize other good films and workers in the industry.

[Chris Knipp]

Well, Spike Lee didn't win best picture, but he got his moment, and he seized it.

I'm disappointed that The Carpetbagger was right on those choices of Oscar shorts. I'm glad FREE SOLO won Best Documentary.

I'd rather not talk about Best Picture.

Frist Letterboxd comment on GREEN BOOK, by Josh Spiegel. He defines the picture thus:
'The story of how that racist guy who says “I’m not racist, I have a black friend” met his black friend.'
RICHARD BRODY'S conclusion about GREEN BOOK: "bullshit."

[cinemabon]

Should a movie produced by HBO/Showtime/Netflix etc, even though intended for its TV viewers, be considered for Academy Awards as long as it meets the obligation of being shown in a movie theater in LA for one week before the end of the year? This is a question that puzzles and even angers many in the film industry as they target their projects for theaters first versus the DVD/video/digital download release that follows for TV screens. Spielberg raises an important if not controversial point that it is unfair for Netflix to produce a film on a TV budget and have it considered for an Academy Award even though it only received a one week release in LA.